IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Baltic States push towards Natoization of Baltic Sea: Implications for Russia 

On 16 May, NATO conducted one of its most extensive exercises in the Baltic regions called the Exercise Siil 2022 (Hedgehog, 2022) which went on till 03 June. Finland and Sweden also joined the allies in the Baltic seas for the training, which revived the large-scale military exercises by NATO and brought a visible change in the security paradigm. The activities involved allies from 14 countries and about 15,000 NATO military personnel. 

The joint exercises and Finland and Sweden’s application to the security bloc invigorated the Baltic states’ push to convert their sea into a NATO sea. Additionally, the Baltic Sea is strategically important as it iterates an identity for people and provides employment opportunities to about 85 million people. This comes as, on 22 May, Estonia’s President Alar Karis mentioned to Poland’s president Andrzej Duda that the war in Ukraine and Finland and Sweden joining NATO would likely make the Baltic Sea into NATO’s inland sea. 

Why are the Baltic states pushing for NATO to get more involved in the Baltic Sea? 

First, a stabilized Baltic Sea. If the two countries are accepted into NATO, the overall security architecture in the Baltic sea will be strengthened as the other members could depend on Finland and Sweden’s support. The two countries would contribute their land, airspace, water, and, more importantly, their naval capabilities to defend against potential attacks by Russia. 

Second, Finland’s and Sweden’s added support. The two countries could contribute tremendously to the relatively weaker navies of the other members. Sweden maintains a large submarine fleet, while Finland has extensive experience in minesweeping activities and in-shore patrol expertise. Their support would also lead to confidence-building measures that could strengthen security cooperation between the Baltic states. 

Third, closing strategic gaps in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic states have always been worried about the islands owned by Finland and Sweden. Concerns arose about using these islands as potential bases to attack the Baltic states due to their geographic proximity. Sweden’s island of Gotland, which it had briefly demilitarised post the cold war, is a vulnerable flank for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. 

Implications for Russia 
If the Baltic sea becomes a NATO sea, there would be a check on Russia’s fleets docked in St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad exclaves. Russia is likely to increase its military deployments in the sea, but that would not impact NATO’s strengthened collective security. Furthermore, Russia would feel threatened as Finland would help NATO extend its border to the Kola Peninsula. The Kola Peninsula is a central military hub for Russia; it also has the world’s largest concentration of nuclear weapons. The peninsula is also home to Russia’s northern fleet, which includes the country’s nuclear-powered submarines.  

References
Constantine Atlamazoglou, “NATO’s 2 newest members would move the alliance closer to one of Russia’s most sensitive military outposts,” Business Insider, 01 June 2022
David Mac Dougall, “Sea changes: How NATO’s expansion could stabilise the Baltic region,” Euronews, 20 May 2022 
David Brennan, “Finland Joining NATO Will Help Bloc Control Baltic Sea: Officials,” Newsweek, 13 May 2022 
Alexandra Brzozowski, “With Nordics set to join NATO, Estonia wants to close Baltic security gaps,” Euractiv, 13 May 2022

War in Ukraine: Day 97
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
Ukraine reported ‌that Russia has now taken control over half of Sievierodonetsk, in the Luhansk province. They also said that Russia has decreased their manpower and firepower in other parts of the eastern front in order to consolidate all the efforts on Sievierodonetsk. Governor Serhiy Gaidai said that the city has almost been flattened, nearly all critical infrastructure destroyed and about 60 per cent of the residential houses damaged beyond repair. Amidst Russia's troops’ slow advance towards the centre of the city, Gaidai maintains ‌Ukraine troops do not face the risk of being surrounded by Russia as they could easily start their retreat to Lysychansk, across the river. He also spoke about how a nitric acid tank in the frontline of Sievierodonetsk has been hit by Russian airstrikes. He urged local residents to not leave the bomb shelters as they might get affected by the fumes from the acid tank. He also posted a photo on the Telegram app where a large pink cloud could be seen on top of apartment buildings, but no casualties have been reported so far. 

On 31st May, a Ukrainian court gave the verdict about two more Russian soldiers accused of war crimes. They were sentenced to 11 and a half years in jail for shelling a town in eastern Ukraine. Alexander Bobikin and Alexander Ivanov had pleaded guilty, and after the verdict said that their sentences were fair. Prosecutor-general Iryna Venedictova said that Ukraine has identified over 600 Russian soldiers suspected of committing war crimes, and has started prosecuting around 80 of them.

Ukraine's state service for special communication released a statement that said that the southern region of Kherson, is occupied by Russia.

The foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter that Ukraine was collaborating with an UN-led international operation to create a safe route for food exports. However, no further clarifications were offered by the minister.

On 31 May, president Volodymir Zelenskyy said that Ukraine's forces were able to gain some ground near Kherson, and were advancing towards the Kharkiv region. He also spoke about the EU's agreement on embargos on Russian oil and said that once this sixth set of sanctions was in place, they should start preparing for the seventh set. While he welcomed this sixth round of sanctions, he also expressed his discontent about the “unacceptable” delay on the part of the EU. In his nightly address, he said: “In the end there should be no meaningful economic relations left between the free world and the terrorist state.”

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
On 31 May, Denis Pushilin, the separatist leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, reported that the cargo ship that was supposed to leave from the Mariupol port has set sail. On the Telegram app, he mentioned that the ship with 2,500 tons of hot-rolled metal sheets is headed to the Rostov in Russia.

Russia’s defence ministry reported their forces downed a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet. This took place in the Mykolaiv region. They also bombed two ammunition depots and a radar station in eastern Ukraine.

As the EU prepares to continue with their proposed sixth set of embargos, Russia has cut off gas supplies to some companies in Denmark and Germany. Gazprom extended its gas cuts to GasTerra, a company that buys gas on behalf of the government in Denmark. They also said that they will stop their flow to another Danish energy firm Ørsted as well as to Shell Energy in Germany, for failing to pay in Roubles.

Oleg Moroziv, a senior Russian parliamentarian, has suggested kidnapping a war minister of any NATO country, in a TV show on Rossiya-1 state TV. He said that it was a plot he was contemplating, that would help in figuring out the motives and workings of these countries. He said: “... then we would sort out who gave which order for what, who is responsible for what exactly… It is not such a mythical picture ... There are new rules in the world now. Let all those war ministers gathering in Kyiv think a little about what it would be like to wake up in Moscow.”

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 
The European Union leaders had a summit meeting on 30 and 31 May and came to an agreement about their proposed embargos on Russia. They said that the sanctions on Russian crude oil will take full effect by the end of 2022. This plan will aim to stop 90% of Russia's oil imports to the European Union bloc. However, Hungary, the main opposition to the oil embargoes and two other landlocked countries in Central Europe, the Czech Republic and Slovakia will be given exemptions for pipeline imports for some time till they figure out an alternative.

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, also spoke about the latest sanction. He said that additional sanctions from the EU cannot be ruled out yet, and it will depend on Russia’s actions in the coming days. Macron also expressed hope that, amidst the ongoing food crisis, Russia will facilitate the export of food from Ukraine. 

Following the EU’s footsteps, Canada also announced that they too will be imposing a new set of sanctions on Russia. According to the official statement, this will include 22 individuals. Moreover, it will affect senior officials of Russian financial institutions and their families, and major key financial institutions and banks too.

On 31 May, US president Joe Biden said that they are doing their best to send Ukraine a “significant amount of weaponry and ammunition” which includes advanced rocket systems, as soon as possible. This announcement comes a day after he said in the press briefing that the US will not be giving long-range missile systems that can target Russia. A senior official of the Biden administration said that they will look into upgrading Kyiv’s battleground capabilities. He also said that the weapons supplied to Ukraine will help strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining power, and repel Russian advances in their territory. However, they will not be used on any target in the Russian territory.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz spoke to reporters and said that Germany will be supplying more weapons and infantry vehicles to Ukraine. But, these will be delivered to Greece, who in turn will pass it on to Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
A UN spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric said that they had had constructive discussions with the first deputy prime minister of Russia, Andrey Belousov. The meeting was to discuss Ukraine’s stored grains and fertilizers and the process through which it can reach the global markets amidst a rising food security crisis.

The UN and other humanitarian agencies also released a statement explaining the status of the brewing food security crisis. The worst drought has hit the Horn of Africa in over 40 years. Without the urgent import of Ukraine’s stored grains, they warned that millions of people in this region will face severe hunger. As per the statement, currently, 16.7 million people are victims of acute food insecurity in East Africa, but with the ongoing crisis, that number is projected to be at 20 million by September.

On 31 May, Pope Francis convened an international prayer for peace in Ukraine. Sitting in his wheelchair, he conducted the service before the statue of Mary Queen of Peace, at the Rome Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore. This event was attended by around 1000 people including Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican.

References
Geneva Abdul, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 97 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder, “Russia takes most of Sievierodonetsk city in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
Peter Beaumont, “Most of Sievierodonetsk has fallen to Russia, says governor of Luhansk,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
“Russian airstrike hits acid tank in Ukraine's Sievierodonetsk, governor says,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Ukraine jails two Russian soldiers for shelling villages,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
“Ukraine has identified 600 Russian war crime suspects - prosecutor,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Ukrainian officials report 'shutdown of all communications' in Kherson region,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
“Ukrainian forces making some progress in southern region -Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
“Ukraine's president welcomes new sanctions but criticises "unacceptable" delay,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“First cargo ship leaves Mariupol since Russia took the city - separatist leader,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Russia says it downed Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet in Mykolaiv region,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Russia cuts gas supplies to Netherlands and firms in Denmark and Germany,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Russian lawmaker suggests kidnapping NATO defence minister in Ukraine,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Kate Abnett, Jan Strupczewski and Ingrid Melander, “EU agrees Russia oil embargo, gives
“Hungary exemptions; Zelenskiy vows more sanctions,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
“France's Macron not ruling out more Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Canada imposes Russia-related sanctions 22 individuals, 4 entities,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Biden says U.S. will provide Ukraine with advanced rocket systems,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
“U.S. to provide long-range rocket system to Ukraine, official says,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
“Berlin to supply arms to Greece, Athens to deliver Soviet weapons to Kyiv -Scholz,”Reuters, 31 May 2022 
“U.N. had 'constructive' talks in Moscow on Russian grain, fertilizer exports,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Drought threatens starvation in Horn of Africa, U.N., agencies say,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “Africa warns of food crisis due to Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
“Ukraine working on U.N.-led naval operation to export its crops,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Pope leads international prayer service for peace in Ukraine, elsewhere,” Reuters, 31 May 2022

IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE
IFOP polls forecast Macron’s shortcomings in the upcoming elections  
On 01 June, according to an international polling and market research firm IFOP, president Emmanuel Macron might not secure an absolute majority in the national assembly elections. 
The polls inferred that Macron’s centrist camp would be able to secure 275 to 310 seats out of the 577 seats. However, it would need additional support to get the 289 benchmarks for an absolute majority. The poll also mentioned Macron’s concerns about a possible minority government which would be a hindrance to passing legislation by his government. The first round of voting is due on 12 June, with the runoffs scheduled for 19 June. (“France’s Macron could lose lower house majority, polls show,” Reuters, 01 June 2022) 

GERMANY
The government creates a EUR nine-month a ticket to tackle rising transport costs
On 01 June, the government decided to give EUR nine a-month tickets in response to the rising energy prices. Additionally, the government plans to reduce fuel prices by 30 cents for petrol and 14 cents a litre for diesel. Germans would be allowed to travel the country with just EUR nine and would deter people from using their cars. This comes as inflation in Germany hit 7.9 per cent in May. The government has also taken measures such as a one-off EUR 300-rebate for energy costs, EUR 100 for child benefits bonus per child, and people on welfare will receive EUR 100. (“Germans get €9-a-month travel in response to energy price rises,” BBC, 01 June 2022)

REGIONAL
EU leaders announce plans to block Russian oil imports by the end of 2022
On 01 June, the EU said it would end Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The reason given for the decision was to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. This comes as a part of the sixth package of sanctions approved by all 27 members. The EU had earlier halted the implementation of its latest round of sanctions due to differences over the ban on Russian oil. European commission president Ursula von der Leyen addressed the differences saying: “Left over is around 10-11% that is covered by the southern Druzhba.” (“Russian oil: EU agrees compromise deal on banning imports,” BBC, 01 June 2022)

Poland’s recovery plan gets approval from the EU
On 01 June, the European Commission announced that it had approved funds to help Poland with its economic recovery. However, the funds were restricted until Poland reformed its judiciary system. Von der Leyen mentioned that Poland would receive EUR 23.9 billion in grants and EUR 11.5 billion in cheap loans under the deal. The commission stated: “Poland needs to demonstrate that these milestones are fulfilled before any disbursement can be made.” (Jan Strupczewski and Gabriela Baczynska “EU approves Polish recovery plan, but no payouts before judiciary fixed,” Reuters, 01 June 2022)